The New Orleans Saints host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday in what could be a high-stakes Week 18 clash. Both of these teams will be hoping that the Panthers do them a huge favor by upsetting the Bucs, which would give the winner of this contest the NFC South title and a playoff spot.
NFL odds have the Saints installed as 3-point home favorites with the Over/Under at 42. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Falcons vs. Saints on Sunday, January 7.
Falcons vs Saints odds
Falcons vs Saints predictions
The Atlanta Falcons pulled off their most impressive win of the season in Week 16, beating the Colts by 19 points, then promptly suffered their worst loss of the season last week by falling 37-17 to the Bears.
Quarterback Taylor Heinicke struggled mightily in that game, completing just 10 of 29 passes for 163 yards and three interceptions before suffering an ankle injury in the fourth quarter. The Falcons are optimistic that he’ll be able to play on Sunday, but even if he does suit up, he isn’t much better than Desmond Ridder.
If the Falcons want to win this showdown, they’ll need to lean on their ground game. That means plenty of action for rookie Bijan Robinson. Robinson was expected to be a workhorse for this run-first offense after being selected with the eighth pick in last year’s draft. While fans (and fantasy owners) have been disappointed in Robinson’s overall usage, he has still rushed for 948 yards on 203 carries.
Robinson is coming off a 15-carry, 75-yard performance against a strong Bears run defense — giving him back-to-back games with more than 70 yards on the ground. Now he faces a New Orleans Saints run defense that surrenders 122.5 rushing yards per game while ranking 22nd in the NFL in yards allowed per carry (4.5).
Robinson already shredded this defense once, picking up 91 yards on 16 carries against the Saints back in Week 12. The biggest obstacle to Robinson going Over his rushing yards total isn’t the New Orleans defense but the presence of No. 2 back Tyler Allgeier, who cuts into his carries.
However, Allgeier has been far less productive on a per carry basis than Robinson and he has seen his snap share shrink in recent weeks. Robinson has out-snapped Allgeier 230-76 over the last five games and I expect a similar timeshare here. With the O/U on the Bijan Robinson odds’ rushing yards set at 57.5 and most models projecting between 60.8 and 67.4 yards, take the Over.
My best bet: Bijan Robinson Over 57.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Falcons vs Saints same-game parlay
Bijan Robinson Over 57.5 rushing yardsSaints -2.5Rashid Shaheed Under 35.5 receiving yards
+650 at bet365
While I’m backing Robinson to eclipse his rushing yards total in what I expect to be a competitive game, I’m leaning towards a Saints victory which creates a nice multiplier for this parlay. While I’m reluctant to bet the Saints at more than -3, I’ll buy myself half a point to bring the spread below that key number.
This is an Atlanta offense that has floundered all season, ranking 26th in the league in EPA and points per game (19.0). The Saints offense hasn’t been lighting the world on fire but it does sit near the middle of the league in EPA and scoring (22.1 ppg).
Although QB Derek Carr has been inconsistent, he’s at least better than whoever the Falcons have at QB. After all, Heinicke is last in the NFL with a passing grade of 48.5 among all quarterbacks with more than 150 dropbacks per PFF — and Ridder is an even worse option. I’ll lean towards the more efficient offense at home in this spot.
Wide receiver Rashid Shaheed was just named as the Saints lone representative at the Pro Bowl but he earned that for his return game and not his receiving prowess. Shaheed hauled in two catches for just 14 yards last week and he’s been held below 25 receiving yards in four of his last six games. That includes the previous meeting against the Falcons when he was limited to just nine yards.
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