Best odds: 4/5
Bookmaker:
San Marino s minnows host Finland in a concluding Euro 2024 qualifying fixture at Serravalle, marking the end of their respective campaigns on Monday.
While San Marino are seemingly heading towards another campaign without significant impact, they managed to achieve a milestone by scoring in back-to-back matches for the first time in 18 years, securing a goal against Kazakhstan on Friday.
San Marino
Despite consecutive losses to Denmark and Kazakhstan, placing them at the bottom with zero points from nine games, San Marino cherish every goal scored as a victory, given their position as the lowest-ranked team in FIFA s world rankings.
Their recent match against Denmark came remarkably close to a historic outcome, nearly securing a draw until succumbing 2-1 within the last 20 minutes.
Under Fabrizio Costantini s guidance, San Marino s spirited performance against Kazakhstan caused some concern for the qualification hopefuls. Trailing 2-1 on Friday, they briefly rallied before conceding a late penalty, widening the hosts lead.
While they remain distant from their inaugural competitive victory, their Euro qualifiers record deteriorates, having suffered defeat in 84 out of 85 matches, with a solitary 0-0 draw against Estonia in November 2014.
Although San Marino hasn t encountered the severe thrashings of the past, conceding a relatively modest 29 goals in nine qualifiers, their 6-0 loss to Finland was a significant low point. Nonetheless, they will have found encouragement in scoring in multiple games, notably against group leaders Denmark and managing narrow defeats against Slovenia.
One positive note for the nation is the alleviation of holding the heaviest-ever European qualifying defeat. France s 14-0 triumph over Gibraltar surpassed San Marino s previous record, established in a 13-0 loss against Germany in 2006.
Team News
Alessandro Golinucci and Simone Franciosi have etched their names into Sammarinese football history by registering goals in their previous two matches. Their contributions make them the sixth and seventh players in the squad to achieve this milestone for their country. With this accomplishment, both are expected to commence the upcoming game. Moreover, another appearance for Golinucci will mark his 50th cap for his nation.
Regarding the injury list for the hosts, Michele Cevoli, Michael Battistini, and Luca Ceccaroli are all unavailable for selection against Finland.
Finland
Following their winless streak in all four Nations League matches last year, San Marino fell far from securing the one playoff spot designated to League D, but Finland managed to secure that fallback option through their performance in the competition despite failing to progress in this group.
A surprising home defeat against Kazakhstan last month dashed Finland s hopes of securing a top-two finish in what had been an intensely competitive group.
Initially, their outlook appeared promising in the campaign with Finland occupying automatic qualifying positions after securing four consecutive wins between matchdays two and five. However, a series of detrimental losses to Denmark, Slovenia, and Kazakhstan caused them to slide to fourth place, consequently ruling them out of contention.
In their history of visits to San Marino, Finland have only managed narrow victories of 2-0 in 1995 and 1-0 in 2011. Conversely, Finland have recently achieved commanding victories of 6-0 and 8-0 over this particular opponent.
Team News
Middlesbrough striker Marcus Forss is the most notable absentee for Finland coming into this break.
Oliver Antman is also a big miss, while full-back Leo Vaisanen has been overlooked by manager Markku Kanerva.
Teemu Pukki was only a substitute against Northern Ireland, but he came on and scored in that 4-0 success and could start up front with Joel Pohjanpalo in a more attacking starting XI for the visitors.
Coach Markku Kanerva won t be able to call upon Middlesbrough striker Marcus Forss, as well as Oliver Antman, and he hasn t even called up fullback Leo Vaisanen.
Teemu Pukki, who came on against Northern Ireland from the bench and scored, is expected to start this time, alongside Joel Pohjanpalo. If so, it would obviously mean a more attacking approach than Kanerva usually takes to competitive games.
Conclusion
With all due respect to San Marino making an effort not to concede too many goals in this campaign, they aren t very likely to prove able to stop Finland from achieving a comfortable victory.
Verdict: Total goals over 3.5
Best odds: 4/5
Bookmaker:
